After a dramatic year of title fights in 2022, the UFC and its belt holders are setup for a series of important title fights in 2023. With Jamahal Hill having already grabbed the Light Heavyweight strap on Jan. 21st in Brazil, I'm gonna be predicting who will hold each weight class' belt when the year is over.
Men's Heavyweight
With the combination of the historical unpredictability of the division and the belt having been vacated by Ngannou just this month, this is a very tough prediction.
It feels like a safe bet to assume that the winner of the March 4th return of Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane would likely defend 1 more time this year and finish the year as the champion. There's a lot to consider with this fight; Jon is dealing with a long layoff and a considerable amount of added weight to manage, especially against someone as technical as Gane. Though, a 1-legged Ngannou was able to outwrestle Gane quite dominantly, and Jon is one of the most ruthless wrestlers to ever enter the cage.
I'm going to assume that Jon is able to get the job done and cement himself as the greatest fighter in the history of MMA.
- 265 lb. Champion: Jon Jones
Men's Light Heavyweight
In an even more pronounced way than the previous division, LHW is remarkably unpredictable. It's been this way for a few years now, and recent fights have only extended the uncertainty. I think Jamahal Hill's win over Glover was convincing, especially in the grappling department, but how he fairs against someone like Anakalaev is hard to guess.
I think that the sporadicity at LHW likely continues. My best guess is that Hill defends once against someone like Ankalaev or Jan, and then before the year ends, Jiří regains his belt and finishes 2023 as the champion.
- 205 lb. Champion: Jiří Procházka
Men's Middleweight
I'm more confident with the prediction at Middleweight: I think Izzy wins back his belt in the Pereira rematch in April. Past this, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't defend again for the rest of the year given how active he's been for the past few years, but otherwise, we might be looking at the trilogy at MSG in November where I think Izzy defends again.
- 185 lb. Champion: Israel Adesanya
Men's Welterweight
Welterweight is a very interesting division with, luckily, many of the contenders booked or ready to be booked. A lot of this discussion really depends on Khamzat and whether he is able to fight multiple times this year, and/or if he can even make 170 anymore. I think that, unlike the situations at MW and LHW, Leon defends in March at home and begins his reign. Because the rematch is so early in the year, I think he'd have to defend at least one other time in 2023, likely against the winner of Burns vs. Masvidal in April. Assuming Leon is good enough to beat Usman, I think he probably handles everyone not named Khamzat and finishes the year with the belt.
- 170 lb. Champion: Leon Edwards
Men's Lightweight
Lightweight is similar to LHW with regards to it unpredictability, but in all different ways. So many contenders look good here, whether it be veterans like Oliveira, Poirier, and Dariush, up and comers such as Gamrot, Tsarukyan, and Fiziev, and of course the winner of February's fight between Makhachev and Volanovski.
This pick is a total shot in the dark, and I think Makhachev is probably the safest bet. Whether or not he beats Volk, I'm uncertain, but I think he finds himself in more than one title fight in 2023 and either wins them all as defenses, or again finds himself as a challenger winning back his strap.
- 155 lb. Champion: Islam Makhachev
Men's Featherweight
Volk. Quite simple pick here, but I really don't think anyone at 145 is really close to him, especially after the performance he put on against Holloway this past Summer. There's of course the chance that he wins the 155 title and stays there for a while, forced to vacate 145 in the process, but, should this be the case, I think he goes back down before the year is over and keeps his title.
- 145 lb. Champion: Alexander Volkanovski
Men's Bantamweight
There seems to be 3 tiers in the division right now: Aljo, Henry, and O'Malley as legitimate and immediate title fighters, the rest of the top 5 (Yan, Merab, Chito, and Cory) who seem to be 1 decisive win outside of a shot, and then everybody else.
The safest pick is clearly in that first tier, but it's tricky. To me, it seems like O'Malley has the most paths to the title: he waits out a potential Aljo vs. Henry matchup, he fights for an interim belt while Aljo is hurt, or, in a change of plans, he fights Aljo at the beginning of the year. I think he has a solid chance at grabbing the title this year, but holding it is gonna be hard in this division. Nonetheless, the UFC needs a star right now, so I'm going with O'Malley.
- 135 lb. Champion: Sean O'Malley
Men's Flyweight
I'm pretty sure Moreno holds on for the whole year. The leaps and bounds that his game has made throughout the Figgy quadrilogy, and the Kai Kara France fight in between, is really, really important to keep in mind.
Pantoja, having beat him twice, and Kai, having put on an impressive performance prior to the liver kick that ended their fight, both are threatining opponents, but given the obstacles that Moreno has overcome and the improvements in his game since his return to the UFC, I do not think anyone beats him in the year.
- 125 lb. Champion: Brandon Moreno
Women's Featherweight
Amanda; this probably won't be defended, and the UFC literally doesn't even have rankings for this division. With Kayla Harrison's recent loss, I don't see her in the UFC this year, so Nunes will keep it.
- 145 lb. Champion: Amanda Nunes
Women's Bantamweight
Probably Nunes here too. This likely comes down to how much more she even wants to fight. Aldana is a pretty interesting matchup if that fight gets made, and of course the Peña rematch is on the table as well. Outside of those two, both of which Amanda would be a massive favorite in, nobody beats her unless she vacates and retires.
If the UFC ends up booking Nunes vs. Shevchenko again, I could maybe see Schvchenko winning, but I'm not convinced this fight even happens in 2023.
- 135 lb. Champion: Amanda Nunes
Women's Flyweight
Of all the UFC's women's divisions, I find this the most interesting. For the first time in a while, Valentina looked human this past Summer against Taila Santos. With this in mind, I think Erin Blanchfield most likely beats Santos in February, setting up a perfect opportunity to make Shevchenko vs. Blanchfield. I think that Valentina bounces back and beats Grasso in the early 2023 title fight, but ultimately, I think she isn't ready for the well rounded-ness of Blanchfield, and gives up the belt.
- 125 lb. Champion: Erin Blanchfield
Women's Strawweight
I'm pretty sure that Weili keeps the belt. Her improvements since the Rose fight(s) are noticeable. One could make a pretty strong case that she won the decision in their second bout, and thus, I think she wins the trilogy if that's the fight that gets booked. Outside of that, Lemos looks interesting, and Andrade could make a push as well, but I don't think anyone beats Zhang Weili in 2023.
- 115 lb. Champion: Zhang Weili
Concluding
There's no good/safe way to make predictions like this. Fights could fall out, my picks could win the belt and lose again before the year is over, some fighters might not even get shots, and my picks could just be wrong. It'd be cool to see maybe 4-5 of these predictions hold true, but the matchups this year should be a really interesting follow up to a 2022 that seemed like the year of the upset. Thanks for reading.